A Lay Man’s Prediction of Putin’s War

In the Claws of Despots | Photographic Art and LOVE to UKRAINE by Lupus in Saxania via Wikimedia Commons

It is pretty remarkable that one man’s romantic and static vision of his country in relation to Europe and the rest of the world has upended the hopes for economic recovery from the pandemic. Putin’s war has contributed to economic and moral pain for many nations, especially poor ones. Putin is stuck in the lost glory of the former Soviet Union and romanticizes picking up the broken pieces of an old empire and gluing them together. His cruel imposition of will like monstrous tentacles over unwilling prey is totally out of step with time. Many of the former satellite nations within the orbit of the former Russian empire have moved on or are trying to move on. He retreats to the same old and contrived Soviet paranoia of the West’s evil design for Russia’s ultimate destruction to justify an irrational war gone bad.

Russia has the brain power, technological know-how, and vast land rich in natural resources to be a first-rate superpower, besides its stockpiles of nuclear and weapons of mass destruction. All these, however, are squandered by an inept government system that favors the elite starting from the very top and leaves a large segment of the population poor. An oligarchy and military machinery control much of the nation’s activities under an absolute ruler who has absolute power. In simple terms, a police state. This is not a formula for growing a genuinely wealthy nation that guarantees human rights and freedom, takes care of its people’s basic needs, and more. This is a formula that sucks the life out of a nation and renders it backward. It is not a sustainable formula, and Putin can only push the envelope so far, and it will not end well for him and his country. We just pray he doesn’t take the rest of the world with him when he falls.

Putin helped usher into the world stage a less-known country and propel its leader to be one of the most admired presidents of modern times while earning the scorn of the world. And as a result of the war, it further cemented Ukraine’s identity as a people and nation distinct from Russia. By sheer grit and will to survive, Ukraine will prevail and recover. Its war experience will shape the country’s trajectory as an economic and military powerhouse, more potent than its immediate neighbors. It will emerge as one of the most powerful nations in Europe, with a government and population steeper in democratic aspirations than ever before. Its inclusion into the EU community and accession into NATO will give it a fresh breath of life, like the rise of a Phoenix from its ashes.

With its heavily oil-dependent economy, Russia will decline along with its global influence as the world transitions into greener energy. The long-term consequences of its inhumane war and its economic costs will take their toll on Russia. A sad war’s aftermath is the bitter enmity of Ukrainians against the Russian people, which will outlive Putin and the present generation. The hatred stoked by the war and Russia’s misinformation and propaganda will make life difficult for some Russians in post-war Ukraine. That enmity will be simmering for generations to come, the pent-up war trauma waiting to explode at the slightest provocations.

Putin’s fears and reasons for going to war, if we can trust his public declarations, ironically, he hastened to fruition. Almost everything he did has backfired. He staked his and his country’s reputation, but his people will reap all the ill will even after he is long gone.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR   Dr. Fernando B. Perfas is an addiction specialist who has written several books and articles on the subject. He currently provides training and consulting services to various government and non-government drug treatment agencies regarding drug treatment and prevention approaches. He can be reached at fbperfas@gmail.com.