Near Pripyat City, Chernobyl’s Exclusion Zone / Ukraine | Photo by Viktor Hesse
Part XL of the “Geopolitics” Series
Mainstream media reported that last Thursday, September 28, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced what appears to be an upgrade of Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Mr. Putin was responding to speculation that NATO may relax its restrictions on Ukraine’s use of its weapons to attack targets inside Russia.
President Putin announced to his security council that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if it was attacked by any state with conventional weapons. The trigger for the launch of nuclear missiles against Ukraine or any of its allies, he said, would be “reliable information about a massive launch of aerospace attack means and their crossing of our state border.”
Geopolitical observers need not be rocket scientists or nuclear physicists to state that Ukraine can call President Putin’s bluff. How? And why?
How? It is elementary, Mr. Watson, to state that the world of science and the geopolitical communities know that there are four nuclear plants in Chernobyl, which is inside Ukraine. Three of them are still in operation.
Remember what happened in Chornobyl (Ukraine, to emphasize its location redundantly) on April 26l 26, 1986? The most destructive accident in the nuclear industry’s history occurred at Unit 4 of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant located 100 km north of Kyiv, in Ukraine (at that time, part of the USSR). The subsequent reactor fire, which lasted for ten days, resulted in an unprecedented release of radioactive material that contaminated more than 200,000 square kilometers (km2) of European territory, predominantly adjacent areas of Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
“If Russia uses even a single nuclear bomb to destroy any city in Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces can just obliterate Chernobyl with a few cruise missiles or even drones. The shortest distance (in air miles) between Chernobyl and Moscow is 432.83 miles .
The accident led to numerous immediate and long-term consequences for the public and the environment. It has also had substantial psycho-social and economic impacts on the affected populations and has negatively influenced the nuclear industry worldwide.” Readers may browse more about the 1986 Chornobyl Incident in this report.
Can Ukrainians call the bluff of the Kremlin? Why? Because the Ukrainians have the most significant “dirty bomb” in the world. If Russia uses even a single nuclear bomb to destroy any city in Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces can just obliterate Chernobyl with a few cruise missiles or even drones. The shortest distance (in air miles) between Chernobyl and Moscow is 432.83 miles (or 696.57 kilometers). And unfortunately for Russians, air currents travel from west to east. Russia sits east of Chornobyl. Thus, areas west of Chernobyl will suffer the least radioactive fallout. But it will become a global tragedy, as air currents will distribute the deadly radioactive materials in some form, even in raindrops (pun intended).
Besides, the Ukrainian military leaders know their counterparts in the Russian army. All the Russian generals are aware that a single nuclear bomb dropped on Ukraine can lead to a “2024 Chernobyl disaster” — if not World War III — and render many Russian areas radioactive for a thousand years or more. And kill many Russians, including the generals’ and their soldiers’ immediate family members, their kin, in-laws, and friends. Is it foreseeable that before the Kremlin bosses can order an attack on Ukraine with nuclear weapons, President Putin may suffer the fate of Roman Emperor Caligula?
Perhaps President Putin thinks the Ukrainians are bluffing. Can he call the bluff from the other side? It is geopolitical poker game time.
